(SOUNDBITE) (English) REUTERS REPORTER, TARA JOSEPH, SAYING: "I'm Tara Joseph, looking at the week ahead in Asia with Wayne
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Arnold of Breakingviews. Wayne, we're in Singapore this week but I am going
Tags:reuters,Asia,Australia.,bank of japan,breakingviews,tara joseph,wayne arnold
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(SOUNDBITE) (English) REUTERS REPORTER, TARA JOSEPH, SAYING: "I'm Tara Joseph, looking at the week ahead in Asia with Wayne Arnold of Breakingviews. Wayne, we're in Singapore this week but I am going to ask you about Japan because we've got the BOJ, the Bank of Japan minutes coming out. It's become very political what the Bank of Japan is doing. What are we going to hear?" (SOUNDBITE) (English) REUTERS BREAKINGVIEWS ASIA STRATEGIST, WAYNE ARNOLD, SAYING: "Normally minutes are what economists will rifle through." (SOUNDBITE) (English) REUTERS REPORTER, TARA JOSEPH, SAYING: "They're pretty nerdy to read, I must say." (SOUNDBITE) (English) REUTERS BREAKINGVIEWS ASIA STRATEGIST, WAYNE ARNOLD, SAYING: "The key to these is that people are looking for what kind of language they use to describe, what they are going to do to resuscitate the economy. And Japan, unlike the U.S., has inflation. So the central bank, like the FED, has become a punching bag for politicians eager to resuscitate growth. The problem is they need to get inflation. Now if this is the U.S., they would be talking about the danger of the FED creating inflation. Here, they actually want the Bank of Japan to create some inflation but the danger is that it devalues the currency, raises interest rates and drives Japan to a Greek style crisis." (SOUNDBITE) (English) REUTERS REPORTER, TARA JOSEPH, SAYING: "And people are upset with the Bank of Japan, right? The politicians are really aiming at them, so it could get ugly." (SOUNDBITE) (English) REUTERS BREAKINGVIEWS ASIA STRATEGIST, WAYNE ARNOLD, SAYING: "So we are looking for language there that suggests they've walked this very fine line between suggesting that they are going to do something and yet not causing a fiscal crisis for the government." (SOUNDBITE) (English) REUTERS REPORTER, TARA JOSEPH, SAYING: "Let's move all the way to India. We've got a slew of data, probably the most interesting, GDP. Is India turning around? (SOUNDBITE) (English) REUTERS BREAKINGVIEWS ASIA STRATEGIST, WAYNE ARNOLD, SAYING: "We have to remember that every year when things get just so bad, they get so bad they actually start looking good. And I think we're at that inflection point with the Indian economy. I think the growth rate is going to improve and people will take cheer from that. It will only improve to around 6 percent. It's still too slow for India." (SOUNDBITE) (English) REUTERS REPORTER, TARA JOSEPH, SAYING: "That sounds pretty good if you are coming from the Eurozone or even the United States." (SOUNDBITE) (English) REUTERS BREAKINGVIEWS ASIA STRATEGIST, WAYNE ARNOLD, SAYING: "Developing countries need to create massive job growth to employ new entrants to the job force. So 6 percent is not going to bring them to what they want to be." (SOUNDBITE) (English) REUTERS REPORTER, TARA JOSEPH, SAYING: "Well, I am going to hold you to that number and we're going to move quickly to Australia. There'll be some data out showing commodities and investment." (SOUNDBITE) (English) REUTERS BREAKINGVIEWS ASIA STRATEGIST, WAYNE ARNOLD, SAYING: "It's a government report on investment and mining. I think what this is going to show is what we've already heard from the central bank there. It is that there are a lot worries that investment is slowing down. There's still a lot of money going into the ground to dig dirt out and send them to China and China is still going to need it. It just doesn't need it all as fast as it did before. And this is okay in terms of the mining industry and in terms of jobs. It's just that it's very bad in terms of GDP because if the money goes in slower, it means on a year-to-year basis, the growth rates turn negative, and that means the GDP could slow down a lot faster than they were hoping for." (SOUNDBITE) (English) REUTERS REPORTER, TARA JOSEPH, SAYING: "Sounds like Australia has to adjust and it can't always be boom time basically. Already we'll leave it there. Wayne, thanks."
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